Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)
A strategic housing market assessment (SHMA) is required to set out the number of homes needed in future to inform local plans and housing strategies, which seek to meet housing need, support a healthy economy and achieve a ‘balanced’ housing market.
In addition, every three months a Housing Market Bulletin is produced to show recent changes in house prices, numbers of sales, affordability, and other market forces.
How our SHMA has developed
- 2008: First Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the area was published, commissioned by the Housing Board based on 2005/6 data.
- 2009: The SHMA was updated using 2007/8 data, labelled “2009 version”.
- 2010: Updated the numbers based on 2008/9 data. Refined the method used to make best use of existing information, rather than commissioning ‘primary’ research. Following consultation the updated chapters were launched, labelled “2010 version”.
- 2012: Updated using 2009/10 data and re-grouped 37 chapters and numerous appendices into fifteen new chapters. These were labelled “SHMA 2012” and published in April 2013. In 2012, Cambridge Econometrics and SQW Ltd were commissioned by the local authorities of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough UA to undertake a study to update the economic scenario projections developed (in 2009) for the Cambridgeshire Development Study. The report published in November 2012 is available here.
- 2013: New National Planning Policy Framework launched and Regional Spatial Strategies were revoked. The SHMA’s role expanded into providing an objective assessment of need for all homes, as well as for affordable homes. Cambridgeshire County Council Research Group provided forecasts in Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts Technical Report 2013; a key ingredient in assessing future housing need and was used to update Chapter 12 Forecasts for homes of all tenures which used 2010/11 and 2011/12 data. Alongside Chapter 12, we updated Chapter 13, Affordable housing need to help us compare “all homes” need to “affordable housing” need. These updates were published in May 2013. After this, all the other chapters were updated to reflect 2010/11 and 2011/12 data and Census 2011 results. At the same time the government clarified its guidance on undertaking housing and economic assessments. In December 2013 we released all the “supporting” chapters for consultation. The resulting full set of chapters, labelled “SHMA 2013” provides our foundation for future monitoring and development of the SHMA.
- 2014: In November 2014, Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire Local Plan examination started and examined evidence from the SHMA and changes since SHMA 2013 was published.
- 2015: Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire objectively assessed housing need further evidence document was published.
- 2016: East Cambridgeshire and Forest Heath objectively assessed housing need documents were published (Forest Heath is now part of the new council area known as West Suffolk).
- 2017: Huntingdonshire objectively assessed housing need document was published.
- 2021: Housing Needs of Specific Groups Cambridgeshire and West Suffolk report was published.
Cambridgeshire and West Suffolk Housing Needs of Specific Groups 2021
- GL Hearn together with Justin Gardner Consulting and Iceni Projects were commissioned by the Cambridgeshire and West Suffolk Local Planning Authorities to undertake a study Housing Needs of Specific Groups Cambridgeshire and West Suffolk and Appendix F examining the Housing Needs of Specific Groups for the 2020 to 2040 period. (Housing Needs of Specific Groups Cambridgeshire and West Suffolk – this published report now superseded by linked accessible version of report and Appendix F above).
- The study aims to provide robust and sound evidence to support the preparation of Local Plans, and potentially Neighbourhood Plans, particularly planning policies relating to the needs of groups with specific housing requirements.
- The study’s outcomes have been presented for each Local Authority together with aggregated findings for the Cambridge Sub-Regional Housing Market Area which includes Cambridge, East Cambridgeshire, Fenland, Huntingdonshire, South Cambridgeshire and West Suffolk. The report also provides outputs for the Greater Cambridge area (Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire).
- The study has been prepared in compliance with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF 2021) and the current Planning Practice Guidance (PPG).
Summary of our objectively assessed housing need 2017
This section provides a summary of the objectively assessed need (OAN) for housing in the area, district by district.
- Cambridge: Cambridge’s further evidence identifies an overall housing need of 14,000 dwellings for the 2011 to 2031 period. The council’s evidence base identifies an affordable housing need of 10,402 dwellings for the same period.
- East Cambridgeshire: East Cambridgeshire’s OAN update identifies an overall housing need of 12,900 dwellings and an affordable housing need of 2,854 dwellings for the 2014 to 2036 period.
- Fenland: The SHMA 2013 evidence base identifies an overall housing need for Fenland of 12,000 dwellings for the 2011 to 2031 period. Greater Cambridge’s evidence base identifies an affordable housing need for Fenland of 5,814 dwellings for the same period.
- Huntingdonshire: Huntingdonshire’s OAN update identifies an overall housing need of 20,100 dwellings and an affordable housing need of 7,897 dwellings for the 2011 to 2036 period.
- South Cambridgeshire: South Cambridgeshire’s further evidence identifies an overall housing need of 19,500 dwellings for the 2011 to 2031 period. The council’s evidence base identifies an affordable housing need of 5,573 dwellings for the same period.
- West Suffolk (formerly Forest Heath district and St Edmundsbury borough: Forest Heath’s OAN update identifies an overall housing need of 6,800 dwellings and an affordable housing need of 2,638 dwellings for the 2011 to 2031 period. The SHMA 2013 evidence base identifies an overall housing need for St Edmundsbury of 11,000 dwellings and an affordable housing need of 3,437 dwellings for the same period.
- Housing Market Area: The note Update on Objectively Assessed Need in the Cambridge Sub-Region Housing Market Area provides an update on objectively assessed need across the housing market area in February 2017, and reflects Peterborough City Council’s agreement to accommodate 2,500 dwellings from the Cambridge housing market area.
- Peterborough: Peterborough’s SHMA update identifies an overall housing need of 25,125 dwellings for the 2011 to 2036 period and an affordable housing need of 13,647 dwellings for the 2014 to 2036 period.
- Combined Authority: The table below provides a summary of the updated housing figures (annual) for the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough area at July 2017.
- Cambridge housing need: 700 overall, 520 affordable
- East Cambs: 586 overall, 130 affordable
- Fenland: 600 overall, 291 affordable
- Huntingdonshire: 804 overall, 316 affordable
- Peterborough: 1,005 overall, 620 affordable
- South Cambridgeshire 975 overall, 279 affordable
Source: Cambridgeshire Research Group
- Housing Requirements: The table below provides a summary of the latest housing targets for the Cambridgeshire, Peterborough and West Suffolk area in February 2019.
- Cambridge 700 dwellings per year target
- East Cambs 575 dwellings per year target
- Fenland 550 dwellings per year target
- Huntingdonshire 804 dwellings per year target
- Peterborough 972 dwellings per year target
- South Cambs 975 dwellings per year target
- West Suffolk 860 dwellings per year target
Source: Local Authorities’ Local Plans
Huntingdonshire Objectively Assessed Housing Need 2017
A report by Cambridgeshire County Council Research Group to support Huntingdonshire District Council in objectively assessing and evidencing development needs for housing, both market and affordable. The report Huntingdonshire Objectively Assessed Housing Need April 2017 provides an updated objectively assessed need (OAN) for housing in Huntingdonshire for the period 2011 to 2036, which builds on the existing SHMA 2013 evidence base, but also takes the opportunity to use any updated other evidence, such as national forecasts and projections, in that process.
East Cambridgeshire Objectively Assessed Housing Need 2016
Two reports by Cambridgeshire County Council Research Group to support East Cambridgeshire District Council in objectively assessing and evidencing development needs for housing, both market and affordable. The report East Cambridgeshire Objectively Assessed Housing Need October 2016 provides an updated objectively assessed need (OAN) for housing in East Cambridgeshire for the period 2014 to 2036, which builds on the existing SHMA 2013 evidence base and the January 2016 report, but also takes the opportunity to use any updated other evidence, such as national forecasts and projections, in that process. The October 2016 update follows the release of new household projections and economic forecasts since January 2016.
Forest Heath Objectively Assessed Housing Need 2016 (now part of West Suffolk)
Two reports by Cambridgeshire County Council Research Group to support Forest Heath District Council in objectively assessing and evidencing development needs for housing, both market and affordable. Alongside the report Forest Heath District Market Signals and Objectively Assessed Housing Need February 2016 by Peter Brett Associates, the report Forest Heath Objectively Assessed Housing Need January 2016 provides an updated objectively assessed need (OAN) for housing in Forest Heath for the period 2011 to 2031, which builds on the existing SHMA 2013 evidence base, but also takes the opportunity to use any updated other evidence, such as national forecasts and projections, in that process. The update Forest Heath Objectively Assessed Housing Need August 2016 follows the release of new household projections and economic forecasts since January 2016.
SHMA 2013
- Introduction: SHMA 2013 cover page and combined contents list.
- Summary: SHMA 2013 summary and explanation of objectively assessed need created by Cambridgeshire County Council Research and Performance Team, and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Joint Strategic Planning Unit.
- Chapter 1 Introduction and background 2013
- Chapter 2 Defining our market area 2013
- Chapter 3 Economic and demographic context 2013
- Chapter 4 Dwelling profile 2013
- Chapter 5 Property purchase 2013
- Chapter 6 Private renting 2013
- Chapter 7 Social housing for rent 2013
- Chapter 8 Intermediate tenures 2013
- Chapter 9 Homelessness 2013
- Chapter 10 Incomes and affordability 2013
- Chapter 11 Plans and land availability 2013
- Chapter 12 Forecasts for homes of all tenures 2013
- Chapter 13 Identifying affordable housing need 2013
- Chapter 14 Size and type of homes 2013
- Chapter 15 Specific housing issues 2013
Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts Technical Report 2013
The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Joint Strategic Planning Unit and Chief Planning Officers commissioned Cambridgeshire County Council Research and Performance Team to produce this technical report to add value and provide guidance and support in developing homes and jobs targets in future stages of local plans.
SHMA 2012
All chapters in the SHMA from 2012 onwards have the following new, standardised sections: Summary and contents page; Introduction; Facts and figures; Analysis; Background information.
Each section is colour coded to help navigate your way around the SHMA. The footer includes date of publication and page number. Older SHMA versions provide all the archived chapters and appendices which have been replaced, updated or merged into the relevant chapter since they were first published.
- Chapter 1 Introduction & background 2012
- Chapter 2 Defining our market 2012
- Chapter 3 Economic & demographic context 2012
- Chapter 4 Dwelling profile & condition 2012
- Chapter 5 Property purchase 2012
- Chapter 6 Private renting 2012
- Chapter 7 Social renting 2012
- Chapter 8 Intermediate housing 2012
- Chapter 11 Planning & land availability 2012
- Chapter 12 Forecasts for all homes 2012
- Chapter 13 Affordable need supplement 2012
- Chapters 12 and 13 Discussion note 2012
SHMA 2010
- Chapter 11 Dwelling profile 2010
- Chapter 13 Snapshot of prices 2010
- Chapter 15 Private rented 2010
- Chapter 17 Social rented 2010
- Chapter 18 Homelessness 2010
- Chapter 19 Applications for intermediate housing 2010
- Chapter 20 Sales of intermediate housing 2010
- Chapter 27 Identifying housing need 2010
SHMA 2009
- Chapter 1 Introduction & context 2009
- Chapter 2 Planning policy & SHMAs 2009
- Chapter 3 Project structure 2009
- Chapter 4 The participation ladder 2009
- Chapter 5 Robust & credible 2009
- Chapter 6 Profile of sub-region 2009
- Chapter 7 Commuting patterns 2009
- Chapter 8 Defining markets using ward data 2009
- Chapter 9 Economic context & forecasting 2009
- Chapter 10 Demographic context 2009
- Chapter 11 Dwelling profile 2009
- Chapter 13 Snapshot of prices 2009
- Chapter 14 Changes in house prices 2009
- Chapter 15 The private rented market 2009
- Chapter 16 Buy to let 2009
- Chapter 17 Profile of social renters 2009
- Chapter 18 Homelessness 2009
- Chapter 19 Applications for intermediate housing 2009
- Chapter 20 Sales of intermediate housing 2009
- Chapter 21 Housing affordability 2009
- Chapter 22 Planning for housing delivery 2009
- Chapter 23 Past & future housing delivery 2009
- Chapter 24 Strategic land availability assessments 2009
- Chapter 25 Key drivers of the housing market 2009
- Chapter 27 Identifying housing need 2009
- Chapter 26 Mixed balanced communities 2009
- Chapter 28 SHMA observers 2009
- Chapter 29 Sizes of homes 2009
- Chapter 30 Indication of affordable tenures 2009
- Chapter 31 BME housing issues 2009
- Chapter 36 Rural & park homes 2009
- Chapter 37 First time buyers 2009
- Annex 12 Consultation form 2009
- Annex 13 Technical appendix
- Annex 14 Key facts & figures 2009
- Annex 20 Future timeline
SHMA 2008
- Chapter 1 Introduction & context 2008
- Chapter 2 Link between planning policy & SHMAs 2008
- Chapter 3 Project structure 2008
- Chapter 4 The participation ladder 2008
- Chapter 5 Robust & credible 2008
- Chapter 7 Defining housing markets using commuting patterns 2008
- Chapter 8 Defining housing markets using postcode sectors 2008
- Chapter 9 Economic context & forecasting 2008
- Chapter 10 Demographic context & forecasting 2008
- Chapter 11 Dwelling profile & occupation 2008
- Chapter 12 Housing stock condition 2008
- Chapter 13 Current property prices 2008
- Chapter 14 Changes in property prices 2001-2006
- Chapter 15 The private rented market 2008
- Chapter 16 The buy to let market 2008
- Chapter 17 Social rented housing turnover, registers and lettings 2008
- Chapter 18 Homelessness 2008
- Chapter 19 Applications for intermediate housing 2008
- Chapter 20 Sales of intermediate housing 2008
- Chapter 21 Current affordability & income 2008
- Chapter 22 Planning for housing delivery 2008
- Chapter 23 Past & future housing delivery 2008
- Chapter 24 Outcomes of strategic land availability assessment 2008
- Chapter 25 Key drivers of the housing market 2008
- Chapter 26 Delivering mixed balanced communities 2008
- Chapter 27 Identifying housing need 2008
- Chapter 28 Observers data 2008
- Chapter 29 Future sizes of homes 2008
- Chapter 30 Indication of affordable tenures 2008
- Chapter 31 BME housing issues 2008
- Chapter 32 Introduction to migrant worker housing issues 2008
- Chapter 33 Gypsies & Travellers housing issues 2008
- Chapter 34 Housing for different household types 2008
- Chapter 36 Rural housing 2008
- Chapter 35 Disability & housing issues 2008
- Annex 1 Research brief
- Annex 2 Household survey
- Annex 3 Private rented survey
- Annex 4 Estate agents survey
- Annex 5 Lettings agents survey
- Annex 10 Outcomes of consultation
- Annex 11 Quality assurance
- Annex 12 Consultation form
- Annex 13 Technical appendix
- Annex 14 Key facts and figures
- Annex 15 Change log
- Annex 16 Learning and plans