Migration

Migration

Over the last 20 years, migration has been a strong driver of population growth in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough area. At the time of Census 2021, the number of residents born outside the UK totalled just over 127,000 in Cambridgeshire, representing 18.7% of the population. This compares to 48,500 residents, 8.8% of the population, at Census 2001.

In the period since 2011 there have been significant national policy changes that have directly influenced migration patterns. These include the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) followed by immigration policy liberalisations that have enabled entry for more non EU migrants  through visas for work and international students, and for their associated dependants. There have also been economic and global factors that have impacted migration patterns over this time, notably including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the humanitarian visa routes opened up for Ukranians and Hong Kongers, for example.  The impact of these, and other factors, have resulted in very different patterns of migration emerging both nationally and across the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough area over the last 15 years.

The ONS’ national estimates show soaring UK net migration (the difference between people coming to live in the UK and those leaving to live elsewhere) in the years to 2023. In 2023 net migration was estimated to be at unprecedented levels at just over 900,000. Whilst the provisional estimates for 2024 indicate a fall in long-term net migration of around a fifth, to 728,000, these levels are still unprecedentedly high.

The newly published Migrant Workers Report: 2024, produced by the Policy and Insight Team, provides an in-depth summary of migration trends into Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, particularly focusing on the period between 2011 and 2024. This report summarises Census data and also takes a detailed look at changes in the numbers and characteristics of migrant workers registering for a National Insurance Number (NINO). Whilst there are limitations with this dataset as it only provides information on workers and where they are at the time of registration (and not of any previous or subsequent movement), it can provide a sense of trend of migration patterns into the area,

In the year to mid-2017, 76.5% of NINo registrations in Cambridgeshire were from EU nationals. By mid-2024, that proportion was just 11.6%. Instead, the proportion of registrations for nationals from Asia, Europe non EU countries and from the Rest of the world has increased. Registrations by nationals from Asia, mainly India and China, accounted for more than half of registrations in Cambridgeshire, at 54.7%, in mid-2024. Registrations from nationals from the Rest of the world accounted for almost one-quarter of total registrations, at 23.9%, mainly from African countries, notably Nigeria.

Figure 32: Annual proportions of NINo registrations in Cambridgeshire by world area, mid-2017 to mid-2024

Horizontal stacked bar chart. The proportion of total NINo registrations from Asian migrants has risen throughout the period, from 11.4% of total registrations in mid-2017 to 54.7% in mid-2024, The proportion of registrations from EU migrants has fallen substantially, from 76.5% of total registrations to 11.6% by mid-2024.The proportion of non EU Europe registrations increased to 13.8% in mid-2023 from 2.1% in mid-2017. In mid-2024 it has fallen away to 7.3%. The proportion of registrations from migrants from the rest of the world has increased, from 10.0% to 23.9%. Registrations from other / unknown countries have increased from less than 0.5% between 2017 and 2021, to 4.8% in 2022, before falling to 2.6% in 2023 and 2024.

Rest of the world includes Africa, North America, Canada South America and Oceania.

There are also notable shifts in the proportion of total NINo registrations that each district accounts for within Cambridgeshire. Increasing proportions of NINo registrations in Cambridgeshire are in Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire. Notably, the proportion of NINos represented by registrations in Fenland have fallen sharply, where previously the majority of registrations were from EU nationals.

Figure 15: Proportion of total NINo registrations in Cambridgeshire by district

Horizontal stacked bar chart, which shows the rising proportion of total registrations represented by Cambridge, along with South Cambridgeshire. East Cambridgeshire's and Fenland's shares have both fallen, and Huntingdonshire has remained stable. Chart compares 3 time periods - 2002 to 2011, 2011 to 2021 and 2021 to 2024.

There is much more information in the Migrant Workers Report: 2024 – Migrant Workers Report 2024

If you are interested in past editions of the Migrant Workers Report you can access these under the Population tab in the Document Library – Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Insight – Document Library