Please note: The Model’s owner, the East of England Local Government Association, has decided to discontinue updating the East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM). For information about up-to-date forecasts from Cambridge Econometrics, contact info@camecon.com.
Designed to facilitate the setting of consistent housing and jobs targets, the EEFM provided a set of baseline forecasts prepared by a leading independent forecasting house (Cambridge Econometrics) for the East of England region and sub-regions (counties, unitaries and district authorities), the East Midlands and South East regions, and the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough, Hertfordshire, New Anglia, South East and South East Midlands LEP areas. The EEFM 2014, EEFM 2016, EEFM 2017 and EEFM 2019 baseline forecasts are still available below.
EEFM 2019
The EEFM 2019 baseline forecasts – grouped by both area and variable – are still available. The EEFM 2019 baseline skills forecasts, the EEFM 2019 baseline land use forecasts, the EEFM 2019 technical report and a July 2019 note on the EEFM 2019 UK forecast assumptions are also available.
The EEFM 2019 baseline report provides an overview of the EEFM 2019 results. EEFM 2019 was developed before the Covid-19 pandemic. The forecasts do not include any Covid-19 specific assumptions or impacts.
The EEFM 2019 skills module provides employment forecasts by 25 occupation groups and 6 qualification levels. Employment forecasts by 31 industry sectors are available in the EEFM 2019 baseline forecasts by area. Employment and GVA forecasts by 31 industry sectors are available in the EEFM 2019 baseline forecasts by variable.
EEFM 2017
The EEFM 2017 baseline forecasts – grouped by both area and variable – are still available. The EEFM 2017 baseline skills forecasts, the EEFM 2017 baseline land use forecasts, the EEFM 2017 technical report and an August 2017 note on the EEFM 2017 UK forecast assumptions are also available.
Slides from the August 2018 launch event provide an introduction to the EEFM and an overview of the EEFM 2017 results.
The new EEFM 2017 skills module provides employment forecasts by 25 occupation groups and 6 qualification levels. Employment forecasts by 31 industry sectors are available in the EEFM 2017 baseline forecasts by area. Employment and GVA forecasts by 31 industry sectors are available in the EEFM 2017 baseline forecasts by variable.
EEFM 2016
The EEFM 2016 baseline forecasts – grouped by both area and variable – are still available. The EEFM 2016 baseline land use forecasts, the EEFM 2016 technical report and an August 2016 note on the potential economic impacts of Brexit are also available.
An April 2017 note by Neil McDonald discusses how the EEFM can be used to estimate the number of homes needed to support economic growth.
EEFM 2014
The EEFM was developed by Oxford Economics to project economic, demographic and housing trends in a consistent fashion. The Autumn 2014 baseline forecasts – grouped by both area and variable – are still available. The EEFM 2014 forecasts were prepared by Oxford Economics.
An employment land module was added to the EEFM in 2014. The Autumn 2014 baseline land use forecasts are also available.
An alternative scenario – Eurozone deflation scenario – is now available. The Eurozone deflation scenario – available by area and variable – is a lower growth scenario which assumes a weaker UK outlook caused by a period of Eurozone deflation.
The EEFM 2014 baseline report provides more information about the macroeconomic context and scenario assumptions.
The EEFM 2014 technical report provides more information about the methodology and data sources.