Cambridgeshire and Peterborough: forecast percentage change in ward population 2021 to 2031
Cambridgeshire County Council’s (CCC) population forecasts are ‘policy-led’, so that they are consistent with planned levels of house-building. The housing trajectories published in 2022 by each district / city council (except for Fenland District Council’s trajectory, which was published in 2021) inform the population forecasts from mid-2021 onwards. The published trajectories detail the number and phasing of dwellings expected to come forward on individual sites.
The authority and ward-level dwelling stock forecasts can present an optimistic view of dwelling stock growth as they assume that all planned dwellings are built according to policy. The extent to which policy targets are achieved depends on many factors, including market forces and the economy.
Many of the wards that are forecast to have the highest percentage growth in population between 2021 and 2031 are those that contain significant housing developments. The map below shows the forecast percentage change in ward population between 2021 and 2031 from CCC’s 2021-based population forecasts, with the location of significant housing developments in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough provided for context.
Two wards in Cambridge are forecast to have population growth greater than 10% between 2021 and 2031. The ward forecast to have the highest population growth is Castle (67.1%), which contains the two major developments of Eddington and Darwin Green. Cherry Hinton ward, which contains part of the Cambridge East: Land North of Cherry Hinton development, has the second highest population growth (13.7%).
The ward in East Cambridgeshire forecast to have the highest population growth is Ely North (75.0%), which contains a major housing development also called Ely North. Wards with smaller housing developments also have noticeable population growth forecasts, such as Fordham & Isleham (37.5%), Soham South (30.3%) and Littleport (23.6%).
The ward in Fenland forecast to have the highest population growth is March South (107.7%), which contains the Local Plan strategic allocations of South East March, South West March and West March, which between them account for more than 3,000 new homes. Other wards with notable population growth forecasts are Chatteris South (32.9%), which contains a major development with outline planning permission, and Leverington & Wisbech Rural (30.0%), which contains the West Wisbech Broad Location for Growth.
The two wards in Huntingdonshire forecast to have the highest population growth are St Neots East (80.4%), which contains the Wintringham Park housing development, and The Stukeleys (65.1%), which contains the Alconbury Weald housing development.
South Cambridgeshire has a variety of wards which are forecast to have high population growth between 2021 and 2031. Most notable are wards that contain significant new settlements, such as Longstanton (82.3%) which contains the Northstowe new town development, Milton & Waterbeach (44.3%) which contains the Waterbeach new town development and Caldecote (66.3%) which includes the Bourn Airfield new village development. Wards on the periphery of Cambridge are also anticipated to have high population growth, such as Girton (46.0%) which includes parts of the Eddington development, and Fen Ditton and Fulbourn (37.9%) which includes the two Cambridge East developments of WING and North of Cherry Hinton. There is also significant population growth forecast for Duxford ward (88.6%), which contains the Wellcome Genome Campus development.
The ward in Peterborough forecast to have the highest population growth is Hampton Vale (79.0%), which contains the major housing development of Great Haddon. Other wards forecast to have high levels of population growth are Hargate and Hempsted (34.4%), which contains the Hampton development, and Gunthorpe (28.5%) which contains the Norwood development.
CCC’s 2021-based population and dwelling stock estimates and forecasts are published on Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Insight.