Population forecasts

Cambridgeshire Research Group produces population and dwelling stock forecasts for Cambridgeshire and its districts. Forecasts are for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. As always they are based on sets of assumptions. To understand the forecasting method and changes that may have occurred please read the methodology paper.

Data from the 2011 Census has been published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Further information on the 2011 Census can be found by visiting the ONS website.


Population Forecasts 2013


Population Pyramid Shows Changing Demographic Shape of Cambridgeshire

Whilst the forecast 25% increase in the size of Cambridgeshire’s population (to just over 800 thousand) over the next 20 years will not come as a surprise to most, this and the expected changing demographic shape of the County are presently key considerations for health and community service providers. The updated population pyramid for the five districts of Cambridgeshire is now available at http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/poppyramids. This shows the current population, using Cambridgeshire Research Group's 2013 mid-year population estimates, along with CRG’s forecasts for 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036.

The population pyramid provides the forecasts for each of the five districts, Cambridge City, East Cambridgeshire, Fenland, Huntingdonshire and South Cambridgeshire, by five year age groups. Whilst there are some variations across the districts, notably the much higher 20s population in Cambridge City due to the high numbers of students and young professionals, there are several emerging developments common across the districts. The most striking of these is the rapid growth of the older population, and its increasing share of the total population over the next 20 years. The over 65s are forecast to grow by almost 80% between 2013 and 2036, and within this the over 90s to grow by more than 250%, from 5,600 to 19,700.  The Charts below show that growth in the working age and children sectors is forecast to be much more muted. Overall, the effect is that the dependent population’s share of the total population is growing whilst the working age population’s proportion of the total is shrinking.

Changing Demographics of Cambridgeshire

See the latest Population Pyramid in our Data Visualisation section: http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/poppyramids