East of England Forecasting Model

Economic Forecasts

Across the East of England and beyond, local authorities are using the East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) to better understand the development needs of their area.

Designed to facilitate the setting of consistent housing and jobs targets, the EEFM provides a set of baseline forecasts prepared by a leading independent forecasting house (Cambridge Econometrics) for the East of England region and sub-regions (counties, unitaries and district authorities), the East Midlands and South East regions, and the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough, Hertfordshire, New Anglia, Northamptonshire, South East and South East Midlands LEP areas. The EEFM also provides a means of generating alternative scenarios.

For more information about the EEFM, including how to commission your own scenarios, contact rebecca.roebuck@cambridgeshire.gov.uk.

April 2017: A new note by Neil McDonald discusses how the EEFM can be used to estimate the number of homes needed to support economic growth.

EEFM 2016

The EEFM 2016 baseline forecasts - grouped by both area and variable - are now available. The latest forecasts are dated 11-08-2016. The EEFM 2016 baseline land use forecasts are also available.

The EEFM 2016 technical report and more information on the potential economic impacts of Brexit will be available soon.

EEFM 2014

The EEFM was developed by Oxford Economics to project economic, demographic and housing trends in a consistent fashion. The Autumn 2014 baseline forecasts - grouped by both area and variable - are still available. The EEFM 2014 forecasts were prepared by Oxford Economics.

An employment land module was added to the EEFM in 2014. The Autumn 2014 baseline land use forecasts are also available.

An alternative scenario - Eurozone deflation scenario - is now available. The Eurozone deflation scenario - available by area and variable - is a lower growth scenario which assumes a weaker UK outlook caused by a period of Eurozone deflation.

The EEFM 2014 baseline report provides more information about the macroeconomic context and scenario assumptions.

The EEFM 2014 technical report provides more information about the methodology and data sources.

EEFM 2013

The Spring 2013 baseline forecasts - grouped by both area and variable - are still available. These forecasts were updated in August 2013 to include the latest dwelling stock estimates. Three additional scenarios - lost decade & beyond, high migration and variant occupancy rates - are also available.

The high migration scenario - available by area and variable - is a higher growth scenario which uses official (ONS) migration assumptions.

The lost decade & beyond scenario - available by area and variable - is a lower growth scenario which assumes fifteen years of sluggish economic growth.

A third additional scenario - variant occupancy ratios - is also available.

The EEFM 2013 technical report provides more information about the methodology and data sources.

The emerging headlines from the Spring 2013 forecasts were presented at the EEFM 2013: Outlook for the East of England economy and new local economic forecasts event in Cambridge on Friday 24th May. The presentations from the event are available from the links below.

Evolution of the EEFM

Outlook for the UK economy

Outlook for the East of England economy

Assessing future housing requirements in the Cambridge HMA

Linking economic development and spatial planning

EEFM 2012

The Spring 2012 baseline forecasts - grouped by both area and variable - and three additional scenarios are still available.

The high migration scenario - available by area and variable - is a higher growth scenario which uses official (ONS) migration assumptions.

The lost decade scenario - available by area and variable - is a lower growth scenario which assumes five more years of sluggish economic growth.

A third additional scenario - variant occupancy ratios - is also available.

The EEFM 2012 baseline & scenarios report provides more information about the Spring 2012 forecasts, including the macroeconomic context and scenario assumptions.

The EEFM 2012 technical report provides more information about the methodology and data sources.